Biosculpture in Dreher Park’s ecoart project (West Palm Beach), the first in Florida (completed, 2004). Ecoartists Jackie Brookner and Angelo Ciotti were part of the design-build team that integrated ecoart into the expansion of the park’s stormwater retention/flood control function. Biosculpture filters, aerates and cleans stormwater dripping and misting on surface planted with native water cleaning plants and mosses.

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350 or Dust

by: Grant Campbell,
Contributing Writer

It is well known from our interplanetary travels that dead planets are basically dust. At our present rate of greenhouse gas accumulation, we are headed in the same direction as Mars: in as little as a couple of millennia, Earth could be a dusty, dead planet.

Greenhouse gases naturally blanket the Earth and keep it about 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without these gases in the atmosphere.  This is called the Greenhouse Effect, which is the major cause of global warming. Over the past century, the Earth has increased in temperature by about 0.5 degrees Celsius and many scientists believe this is because of an increase in concentration of the main greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur dioxide, sulfur trioxide, particulate matter and fluorocarbons.   

To better understand the "greenhouse effect", think of Earth's atmosphere as the glass panes of a greenhouse. Solar radiation passes through the atmosphere and is absorbed by the Earth's surface, causing it to warm. At night, the Earth's surface cools, but the glass panes are fouled and dirtied by gases and pollutants; some of the radiation is trapped and cannot escape the atmosphere, causing a thickening of the so-called blanket that surrounds the Earth, as well as a slow, but ever increasing, temperature rise.

Carbon dioxide is formed when a carbon molecule is joined to two molecules of oxygen in the presence of a catalyst such as heat from combustion. Trees and other vegetation absorb carbon dioxide, utilize the carbon and expel the oxygen into our atmosphere creating a symbiotic relationship with other life forms that absorb oxygen and expel carbon dioxide. Some of the excess gases are not able to escape the atmosphere, trapping even more gases and keeping some of each day's heat from dissipating.

Global warming is predominately a man caused problem; the question is will the problem be serious or catastrophic. It is not happening, nor has it happened, overnight. Pre 1750 levels of carbon in the atmosphere were 280 parts per million (ppm). As man needed more and more land to accommodate population increase and the required additional crop growing capacity, more and more trees and vegetation were sacrificed, more fuel was used and carbon based fuels came into widespread use − all contributors to 2005’s carbon count of 384 ppm, and scientists predict another 100 ppm rise by 2050. A total of 550 ppm will surely cause irreparable damage to the Earth as a whole, such as floral and faunal species loss and glacial and ice sheet melt. If we humans are to stop the global warming trend, scientists agree that we must reduce the level of atmospheric carbon to 350 ppm, or risk becoming dust.

Most scientists argue that the use of fossil fuels and aerosols, along with other human activity, is causing global warming. Other scientists disagree, saying the warming is a natural cyclical change that will reverse itself over time.  

Both groups are wrong. Both groups are right. A portion, but not all of the climate change we are experiencing can be attributed to planetary trends. Humanity cannot prevent the cyclical changes, nor should we even try. The best we can do is moderate the effects of the combination of natural and man induced changes. 

There is absolutely no doubt that the gradual increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere have caused a thickening of the atmospheric blanket that surrounds the Earth, trapping more solar radiation and increasing the average temperatures and sea level rise at the same time as the contributions of greenhouse gases are increasing. It's the combination of planetary trends and the ever-increasing greenhouse effect that has been promoted by man since the industrial revolution that is killing the planet.

We cannot stop the planetary trend, but we must stop mans' contribution to the greenhouse effect if we are to save our planet 

The bulk of greenhouse gas emissions are caused, directly or indirectly, by man, through the burning of fossil fuels. If people keep producing such gases at increasing rates, the results will be more severe storms, floods and droughts, increasing prevalence of insects, the rising of sea levels, and a re-distribution of Earth's precipitation.  These changes to the environment will certainly cause negative effects on society, such as higher health risks and decreasing economic development. 

There are those among us who absolutely deny the existence of global warming and some among us who simply do not care − the prevalent attitude is that “if there is a problem it will have to be corrected by some future generation. I’m going to promote the use of carbon based fuels, buy carbon credits from someone who doesn’t generate GHGs and continue to pollute as before because I have paid for the privilege”.

Not all greenhouse gases are noxious. As temperature rises, evaporation increases and more water vapor accumulates in the atmosphere. As a greenhouse gas, water vapor absorbs more heat, further warming the air and causing even more evaporation. When CO2 is added to the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, it too, has a warming effect. This causes more water to evaporate and warm the air even more to a higher, more or less stabilized level. Thus CO2 warming is escalated beyond a purely CO2 effect. A doubling of CO2 would warm the globe around 1.5 degrees Celsius. Taken on its own, atmospheric water vapor roughly doubles the amount of CO2 warming.  

By virtue of the ever-increasing blanket of greenhouse gases surrounding the Earth, combined with the cyclic phenomena, the planet can only get warmer to the point that life as we know it will cease to exist. When life on Earth is no more, and there are no more greenhouse gas emissions, the blanket will begin to dissipate and over the course of 500 to 1000 years, the planet will cool and the atmosphere will rarify, probably causing yet another ice age.

Depending on the severity and duration of an ice age, new life forms or no life forms could emerge. Either way, it will be a far different world than the one of today.

With the present blanket of greenhouse gases dissipated and if no new life forms are created to generate new greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will degenerate and ambient temperatures could increase to unbearable heights. The world could then warm enough to evaporate the water from the surface of the Earth, causing the planet to dry up and turn to the dust we find on extraterrestrial bodies like Mars and the Moon and who knows how many other, celestial bodies. 

If the ice age is moderate and if mankind should somehow survive, the population will almost certainly dwindle to only a few of the fittest, and finding fuel for cooking fires, foods to cook and materials for shelter will be difficult if not impossible. A new “caveman society” could emerge and the process of evolution would have to begin again. It is just possible that this has already happened repeatedly over the eons with entirely different life forms than present societies have ever dreamed of. 

Carbon dioxide emissions, although the major man-made cause of the warming trend we are experiencing, are not the sole contributor to mankind’s self-destruction. Carbon based fuels also release sulfur, nitrogen, hydrogen and other gases that, on their way into the atmosphere, are oxidized to form sulfur oxides, dioxides and trioxides along with nitrous and nitric oxides and dioxides that, when combined with water droplets in the atmosphere, return to the earth in the form of  sulfuric, hydrochloric and nitric acids through what we know as “acid rain”.

These acids naturally find their way into our water bodies contributing to ocean acidification. Higher concentrations of acid in our waterways have a devastating effect on aquatic life forms in the bleaching of corals and the thinning or outright dissolving of the shells of corals, shellfish and crustaceans. 

Ocean acidification is bad enough, but when it is coupled with eutrophication, or premature aging of a waterway system, from the runoff of fertilizers and pesticides, aquatic life forms suffer from algal blooms, hypoxia and light deficiency promoting high incidences of fish and aquatic animal kills.  

The Mississippi River and its tributaries drain the Midwest farmland belt and carry the runoff of nitrates, phosphates and sulfates from farms as far away from the Gulf as Idaho and Wisconsin to create one of the largest aquatic dead zones in the world. One only has to look at the Mississippi River Delta and the Gulf of Mexico to see the world’s most glaring example. 

Deforestation adds to the atmospheric carbon content through the loss of the carbon sequestering capability as well as the carbon utilization and oxygen production that trees provide. Every day, around 6000 acres are lost to development in the US alone. The Amazon rain forest loses about an acre per minute although Latin American governments are reporting that rain forest destruction has decreased over the last couple of years. Indonesian forests are being depleted for timber even though much of the timber is exported illegally.  

Fortunately, as the soils uncovered in the rain forest destruction are depleted and new territories are exploited, the rain forest has a tendency to grow back. The rate of new growth cannot match the rate of destruction though, and there is a time lag before the new forest is productive.

World population currently stands at around 6 billion and is expected to reach 9 billion by the end of the century; the demand for space for aqua-culture and to grow food crops for the ever increasing population is continually eating away at the rain forests and the mangroves that provide a barrier to salt water intrusion and storm protection. 

The mangrove forests of the world have a symbiotic relationship with the coral reefs and the seagrass beds in all of our oceans. They all provide nursery habitat and food sources for juveniles of aquatic, avian and terrestrial species. The mangroves act as a filter to protect the reefs and the seagrasses from pollutants and siltation from runoff. They offer landward protection from storms. The reefs moderate the waves before they can reach the shore thus reducing their destructive effect on the mangroves, and before they can stir up silt and pollution that would disturb the seagrass beds.

The problems we are facing are man made, and man must correct them or suffer the consequences. There are contributing factors to global warming and climate change that man can’t control, but if we can eliminate the causes that are man made, we will have more time to adapt to the changes we can’t control.

A recent Rasmussen Report stated that forty-four percent (44%) of U.S. voters now say long-term planetary trends are the cause of global warming, compared to 41% who blame it on human activity.

According to Michael Pidwirny, Associate Professor of Biology and Physical Geography at the Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences at the University of British Columbia, the Milankovitch theory suggests that normal cyclical variations that exist in three of the Earth's orbital characteristics are probably responsible for some past climatic change. The basic idea behind this theory assumes that over time these cyclic events vary the amount of solar radiation that is received on the Earth's surface. It is man’s contribution to the greenhouse gas blanket that keeps the solar radiation from escaping the atmosphere at night.

The first cyclical variation, known as eccentricity, controls the shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun. The orbit gradually changes from being elliptical to being nearly circular and then back to elliptical over a period of about 100,000 years. The greater the eccentricity of the orbit; the greater the variation in solar energy received at the top of the atmosphere between the Earth's perihelion and aphelion. Currently, the Earth is experiencing a period of low eccentricity. The difference in the Earth's distance from the sun between perihelion and aphelion which is only about 3% is responsible for approximately a 7% variation in the amount of solar energy received at the top of the atmosphere. When the difference in this distance is at its maximum (9%), the difference in solar energy received is about 20%.

The second cyclical variation results from the fact that as the Earth rotates on its polar axis, it wobbles like a spinning top changing the orbital timing of the equinoxes and solstices.

The third cyclical variation is related to the changes in the tilt (obliquity) of the Earth's axis of rotation over a 41,000 year period.

Jeffrey A. Lee, who is a geographer at Texas Tech University, explains that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon on Earth’s equatorial bulge, causes the poles to slowly wobble. Over 25,800 years, the polar axis traces out a circle with respect to the stars.

Presently the North Pole points to Polaris and all other stars visible in the Northern Hemisphere appear to rotate around that star in the night sky. In one half cycle, or 12,900 years, the North Pole will point to the star Vega, which is forty-seven degrees away from Polaris.

In another 12,900 years, the North Pole will be back to Polaris. Astronomers 6000 years ago noted that the axis pointed to the handle of the Big Dipper, not Polaris, which is the end of the handle of the Little Dipper.

This precession causes the length of winter and summer to vary throughout the cycles. Because the Sun is not at the center of the orbital ellipse; it currently takes seven more days for Earth to travel from the vernal equinox to the autumnal equinox than from the autumnal to the vernal. In other words, the Northern Hemisphere winter now is shorter than the Southern Hemisphere winter. In 12,900 years, the North will have longer winters and shorter summers.

Because the Earth's orbit around the sun is irregularly elliptical, several factors within the orbit affect the global temperatures. To begin, the orbit contains six points that determine the seasonal differences. They are Perihelion, the point in the orbit at which the Earth is closest to the Sun, Aphelion, the point in the orbit at which the Earth is farthest from the Sun, the Vernal and Autumnal equinoxes at which the distance between the Earth and the Sun are equal, and the summer and winter solstices, which give us our longest and shortest periods of daylight, respectively.

Although the Earth's orbit is generally elliptical, the eccentricity is currently only about 3%; the Sun, however, is not at the center of this ellipse. At perihelion, the distance between the Earth and the Sun is 91 million miles and at aphelion, the distance is 95 million miles. Earth reaches aphelion in early January each year, and passes through its perihelion point near the start of July.

The axis of the Earth is not quite vertical, and the distance from verticality is not constant, varying from about 22.5 to 24 degrees.  As the Earth rotates on its axis and revolves in its' elliptical orbit, it also wobbles on its' axis much as a top does when it is spinning. This is what causes the seasonal differences and variations in our temperatures. If the orbit were a perfect circle and if the Earth's axis were perpendicular to the plane of revolution, Earth’s temperatures would be constant.

When the Earth's tilt is at its' maximum, more solar radiation strikes the polar regions causing more ice melt than when the tilt is minimal. The tilt is at its' maximum approximately every 23000 years, and we are presently approaching that maximum, which accounts for some, but again, not all of the climate change we are currently experiencing. With maximum tilt occurring at perihelion, temperatures will naturally be at their highest, causing polar and glacial ice melt and sea level rise.

At present, the North Pole is gradually tipping more toward the sun which accounts for the fact that the polar ice melt and global warming is more pronounced at the North Pole than at the South Pole. The difference between Earth’s inclination toward Polaris and Vega puts the pole approximately 5850 miles closer to the sun at perihelion. 5850 miles doesn’t seem like a lot, but when one considers the annual mean temperature differential between the North Pole, at -6° and the Equator at 77°, the 83° degree differential is an indication of what we can expect from planetary trends alone.  

Man has created complex problems that must be contended with, if, not just humanity, but the Earth itself, is to survive. In answer to the question will the problem be serious or catastrophic; at this point the problem is serious, but not insurmountable.

If humanity works together on a global basis to reduce the carbon dioxide levels to 350 ppm, global warming can be stopped before it becomes catastrophic. It will take a concerted worldwide effort, and it won’t be a short term solution. At 350 ppm we are still flirting with disaster, because complacency could allow the carbon dioxide levels to rise again. We must at least maintain a level of 350 ppm, but if we can reduce that far, what is to stop us from going a little further and not only building a safety cushion, but actually reducing global warming?

Let’s go to Copenhagen in December with a firm resolve to stop global warming − our future depends on it.

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Lighting a Candle for Hope